How much influence does Russia have over Iran?
By Al-Jawhara bint Fahd bin Jughayman
What are the main drivers of international relations? Common interests in areas of political, economic, and even military competition. Each one of these areas is related to one another through an intricate web between two competing countries. Any two countries can combine conditions in which they impose relations dealing in these areas with political relations being at the top of the heap. This, in turn, allows common interests to crystalize in economics and the military. It is common knowledge that Russia is a major world threat holding a strong political position. Some countries are taking advantage to “assist” Russia because of their position of power, including Iran.
Moscow and Tehran have been developing relations over common interests in various fields. Russia is aiding Iran in its current political isolation. They are cooperating politically to unify their positions/orientations towards a multitude of regional and international issues.
Geography is a major contributor to the relationship created between these two nations. Iran’s proximity to Afghanistan and Syria is very appealing to Russia. Their participation in the Syrian Crisis contributed greatly to Russian-Iranian Political and economic rapprochement. Also, Iran’s location, adjacent to the Persian Gulf, strengthens Russia’s ability to build solid political communication between Iran and the neighboring Arab Gulf nations.
Iran’s strong political influence in Syria prevents the use of Syrian territory to facilitate gas transfers through the Mediterranean Sea. This ultimately aids Russia in its intent to prevent future gas exports to Europe. They must now rely on more expensive methods to transport gas and constitutes a response to the sanctions in the West, Manufacturing resistance against the US
Iran also now has ties to the Russian-Ukrainian war. The war has created a field of military cooperation in which Iran is reaping its benefits. US intel suggests that Iran is not only supplying drones, but they are also providing training on how to use them properly. US intelligence has also indicated that Russian military officials have visited Iran twice this past summer to inspect the drones Tehran intends to sell. This will greatly impact Russia’s ability to counter western equipment flowing into Ukraine.
Russia’s loss in Ukraine is not an outcome Iran can afford. Iran will have trouble maintaining power over Syria if Russia is weakened as a result of the war. Without Russian Air support, Iran will face a much more challenging time with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad since their intervention in 2015. During the tripartite summit, Putin conversed with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and seemed majorly concerned with the current situation facing Syria.
The length of the relationship between Iran and Russia is inconclusive as of yet. The balance of interest has not yet been decided because of the growing uncertainty of the futures of the nations in the region. As long as the American Silence and the lack of a rival country in the region continues, this path is very viable between Russia and Iran. The most important question to ask during this fateful time is: How much influence does Russia have over Iran’s decision on the JCPOA nuclear deal with the US?
Translated/Edited by Malek Joseph
WHIA Intern