Kobani’s Tunnels

The status quo of Northeast Syria

By Marah Bukai*

In recent times, Turkey has repeatedly threatened to invade northeastern Syria, which is currently controlled by Kurdish-led forces known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This has been a source of ongoing tension between Turkey and the United States, which has provided support to SDF in its fight against ISIS.

One of the main reasons for Turkey’s interest in northeastern Syria is the presence of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey views as a terrorist organization with links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) that has been fighting for autonomy in Turkey for decades. Turkey has also expressed concern about the potential for the Kurdish-controlled region to become a safe haven for Kurdish separatist fighters.

The U.S. has been trying to mediate between Turkey and the Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria, but a military incursion by Turkey remains a real possibility. If Turkey were to invade northeastern Syria, it could lead to a large-scale humanitarian crisis, as well as a resurgence of ISIS in the region. The U.S. has stated that it would not support any actions that destabilize the region and harm its partners on the ground.

In the long term, it’s critical to find a solution to the crisis in northeastern Syria that addresses Turkey’s security concerns while also protecting the full rights of the Kurdish in the region. This would require dialogue and negotiations between all relevant parties, including Turkey, the Kurdish-led forces, and the international community.

A potential Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria could have a number of serious consequences, both for the people living in the region and for the broader Middle East. Some of the most likely consequences include:

• Humanitarian crisis: An invasion would likely lead to a large-scale displacement of people, as residents flee the fighting and violence. This could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, with thousands of people at risk of starvation and disease.
• The resurgence of ISIS: Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria have been instrumental in the fight against ISIS, and an invasion could lead to the group’s resurgence in the region. This would pose a serious threat to regional and global security.
• Regional destabilization: A Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria could lead to increased tensions and instability throughout the Middle East, as other countries and non-state actors take sides and respond to the conflict. This could lead to a wider regional war.
• Damage to US-Turkey relations: Turkey is a NATO ally of the US, and an invasion of northeastern Syria could further damage US-Turkey relations, which have already been strained by a number of issues, including the US’s support for Kurdish-led forces in the region.
• Impact on the Kurdish population: The Kurdish population in northeastern Syria would be disproportionately affected by an invasion, as they are the main group in control of the region and would likely bear the brunt of the fighting and violence. This could lead to human rights violations and potential genocide.

It’s important to note that a potential Turkish invasion would not only affect northeastern Syria but also the entire region and could have long-lasting negative consequences on global security and stability.

It is likely that the Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria, would put up strong resistance in the event of a Turkish invasion. The SDF has been well-trained and equipped by the United States and its coalition partners and has a strong and dedicated fighting force.

The SDF is composed of a number of different Kurdish and Arab troops and has been the main partner of the US-led coalition in the fight against ISIS in northeastern Syria. The SDF has been able to retake and control large areas of land from ISIS and has established a degree of autonomy in the region.

In the event of a Turkish invasion, the SDF would likely try to defend its territorial gains and protect the population under its control. They would likely attempt to use their knowledge of the terrain and their experience in asymmetric warfare to their advantage and use guerrilla tactics to slow down the Turkish advance.

However, it’s important to note that the SDF would likely be outmatched by the Turkish military in terms of manpower and equipment. They would also be facing the possibility of a two-front war if the Syrian government, which is supported by Russia, were to intervene in the conflict as well.

Additionally, the SDF has also made a deal with the Syrian government in order to protect their territories from the Turkish invasion, and they had to hand over some of their territories to the Syrian government In any case, a Turkish invasion of northeastern Syria would likely lead to significant loss of life and suffering for the civilian population in the region, as well as potentially serious regional destabilization.

Last week the Department of State released a statement following the meeting of Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and his counterpart Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu over the U.S.-Türkiye Strategic Mechanism last week in Washington.

The two sides conducted an extensive dialogue on a broad range of areas of bilateral cooperation and emphasized the significance of our partnership as NATO Allies.

They discussed all aspects of the Syrian crisis and reiterated the commitment of the United States and Türkiye to a Syrian-led political process in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.  They welcomed the recent UN Security Council vote to extend the cross-border delivery of humanitarian assistance into Syria. The two sides also addressed broader issues in the Middle East and Africa, including the need to build regional stability and connections through increased economic and security cooperation.

On the ground, the tension is extremely high, and YPG is digging deep tunnels in preparation for the very expected Turkish military operation on Kobani city, regardless of the heavy cost on all sites involved in the conflict.

*Marah Bukai is a Syrian American academic researcher, writer of Third Fear @amazon, Editor-in-Chief @WHinarabic, senior correspondent @WhiteHouse, and member of the Syrian Constitution Committee.