Intransigence vs. Pragmatism, Syria and Turkey and the possibility of a deal

by Ayman Hakki

A lot is being said about a recent brief conversation at an international conference, between the Turkish foreign minister and the Foreign Minister of the Syrian regime. Media outlets inferred that negotiations have begun between Assad and Erdogan: Negotiations aimed at Turkiyé (previously Turkey) taking steps toward normalization with Syria, in exchange for the Syrian regime asserting control over the Northeast of Syria. An area bordering Turkiyé, presently under Kurdish control, with full US support.

Denials of the resumption of suspended negotiations seemed half-hearted at best, and Turkish president Erdogan at first remained silent. So, what is really going on?

Since all politics are local: Turkiyé and Syria must be engaging. No matter how Erdogan felt about Assad in the past, his main concern now is the coming election. Turkey’s elites, in opposition to Erdogan, are using his anti-Assad, and pro-Syrian-people, position against him. The mood in the country is anti-Syrian refugees and despite his valiant efforts to welcome them, Erdogan has come to grips with reality.

Without seeming to back off his past position vis a vis Syria’s regime, he must negotiate this tricky impasse.

Therfore it would not be a surprise if he were to soften his anti-Assad rhetoric, if offered support against the Kurdish forces-he considers terrorists-in Syria’s northeast.  The United States has remained steadfast in its support of Kurdish control over northeast Syria, under the pretext of the fight against ISIL. Support that gives pause to Turkey, its strongest NATO ally in the region, and puts both allied nations at odds.

Clandestine security negotiations may be going on, but the men in charge- at the top -are dissimilar in nature. The President of Syria is unprincipled and intransigent, whereas the President of Turkey is principled yet pragmatic. Assad has become famous for his stubbornness, while Erdogan has exhibited a decades-long ability to switch sides, when the political winds shift. Assad observers also claim that his words are never to be taken seriously, while Erdogan has been historically true to his word.  Aljazeera has reported that Erdogan, recently, said in an interview; we are in total support of a whole Syria, undivided, and have no territorial ambitions in Syria***.

Turks in general have a long-standing issue with Kurdish separatists and are extremely unhappy with US support of what they all consider terrorist organizations in northeast of Syria. It is not clear how far Erdogan is willing to go in order to win the next election, but having Assad do the job for him, and rid Turkiyé of its Kurdish headache would be welcomed by Turks. Turks who are soon to be asked to decide if they want Erdogan to remain in power, or not.

Assad, on the other hand, does not have the Syrian peoples’ interests at heart. Intent on maintaining control over Syria, at any cost, he will negotiate with anyone, promise anything, and deliver nothing. This pattern of behavior has allowed him to survive against all odds. Playing both sides of every regional, and international, dispute while fully knowing that any compromise on his regime’s part will cause its downfall. Therefore, any reform stemming from negotiating in good faith with the opposition, specifically the constitutional committee acting within the framework of UN resolution 2254, are not in his favor.

In my humble opinion, once the upcoming Turkish elections are over, Erdogan will return to his true form, and cut off any further contact with a regime that he knows is not only bankrupt but vile in every way, so these rumors of talks at this point in time are all pure gamesmanship. Turkish political electoral concerns are driving this mouse and cat game. Until the Ukrainian war is decisively won or lost, by one side or the other, which is very unlikely, Erdogan and Assaad will continue to dance around the subject and never consummate any deal.

• Washington Post (Monday, August 29, 2022, A1) an article describing Turkey’s economic woes, and how some Turks have turned against Syrian refugees living there, by Karim Fahim, the tensions between Turks and Syrian refugees there were described as, boiling over. How this affects the relationship between the governments of Turkey and Syria is important to understand.