Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called for immediate Russian-Western negotiations over the situation in Europe, after Russia published two notices of their conditions to stop the escalation in Ukraine, by which Moscow requested thatNATO removes all of its military infrastructure in the post-1997 Eastern European countries. Russia is also requesting that NATO does not undertake any military activities outside its territories in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Moscow wants to possess aneffective veto right vis-à-vis the foreign and security policies of countries which it considers as its satellites, and to prevent the United States from developing bilateral military cooperation with these countries, hindering the establishment of US bases even against the Islamic State (IS) in Asia. Russia considers that the US extra-territorial military expansion constitutes a threat to its national security.
The US and NATO have repeatedly dismissed Russia’s requests, which they did not even consider as enough bases for the start of negotiations, as a US high-official considered that Russia knows that some of these demands are unacceptable. Therefore, it is worth reflecting on what Russia’s real intentions are vis-à-vis its US demands and what is behind its attempt to shift strategic discussions into the media. All of this indicate that Putin wants to build internal alibies in preparation for the possibility of starting a military conflict in Ukraine.
US sources confirm that Russia is preparing for war although Putin has not taken his final decision yet to attack. It is believed that the main purpose behind the militarization and mediatization of conditions, is preparing the internal Russian public opinion and creating an excuse for launching a possible military operation. What makes the Russian adventure in Ukraine more plausible is the fact that the Russian military forces are not openly moving this time, in public as usual, and that many aspects of these military and intelligence operations are being hidden.
The Biden administration affirms that it will not offer compromises about the basic principles of European security, including the right of all countries to decide their own foreign policy and future, away from external influences. However, it also considers that there are other issues that are worth being negotiated, saying that “While Russia has now expressed its concern towards the US and NATO’s activities, we will also present our concerns about Russian activities, which we believe are harmful to our values and interests.”
While the Biden administration tends to take a calm and well-intentioned approach to the resolution of conflict with Russia, it is also working on moving the discussion towards the closed diplomatic sphere. Accordingly, a high official in the Biden administration adds, “we hope that President Putin will seize this diplomatic opportunity and that he also listens to his people’s needs.”
On the other hand, the Administration and the Pentagon areexpediting the provisioning of the Ukrainian army with helicopters and anti-tank javelin missiles systems, as well as enhancing the Ukrainian military assistance that amounted to USD 450 Million. Nevertheless, many questions remain about how responsive the administration is to the needs of Ukraine in terms of volume and timing.
At the same time, Russia’s present power is not comparable to that of the former Soviet Union, neither economically nor vis-à-vis the Western powers. Russia still looks at former Soviet States, including Ukraine, as entities lacking sovereignty and that need to stay revolving in its axis. Undoubtedly, Putin bets on the lack of Western solidarity in its position within Europe,whereas he considers that his policies there are bearing fruitfulgains to Russia.
After the withdrawal from Afghanistan, analysts wonder about the nature of the guarantees that the Administration could present to Russia’s security under the threat of weapons and within a strategic dialogue that will be soon launched. It may be the hardest strategic test to the Biden Administration; not only a test of credibility and eagerness to defend the Western alliance, but also its ability to produce a balanced negotiating position that prevents war without allowing the Kremlin leader to win over by military threat, which the Soviet Union was unable to achieve in the Bay of Pigs nor in the Berlin crisis.
Article written by Samir Altaqi
Translated into English and Edited by WHIA Editor
