Love in the Air

WHIA- Business Insider

Story by Paul Iddon*

It seems Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cannot get enough of Turkey’s homegrown military drones. Both countries have signed landmark multibillion-dollar deals for Turkish Bayraktar drones in recent months.

The deals reflect the increasing interest among Arab Gulf states in Turkish-made hardware and are signs of Turkey’s growing desire to sell arms to its Middle Eastern neighbors despite differences over other issues in the region in recent years.

In July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured a record-breaking deal during a visit to Saudi Arabia, when Riyadh signed a contract with Turkey’s Baykar Defense for its new Bayraktar Akinci drone.

The Akinci is a much larger and more sophisticated combat drone than its predecessor, the Bayraktar TB2, which became well-known for its use in recent conflicts in the Middle East, North Africa, the South Caucasus, and Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia previously showed interest in procuring Turkish drones and securing rights for local production. While neither side has disclosed the value of this unprecedented deal Baykar’s CEO called it “the biggest defense and aviation export contract in the history of the Republic of Turkey.”

According to Baykar, the new deal includes joint production and technology transfer. The Akinci, with its advanced sensors and weapons systems, will be the most advanced drone Riyadh has ever acquired.

The deal was signed just over a month after Kuwait became the 28th country to order the TB2, spending $367 million on an unspecified number of the drones, the 500th of which rolled off the assembly line in June.

Kuwait’s purchase was nothing compared to the order made by the UAE last year, which included as many as 120 TB2s and assorted equipment and training in a $2 billion deal. While the number of Akincis included in the Saudi deal remains undisclosed, it is likely substantial if the contract is worth more than Abu Dhabi’s multibillion-dollar order.

The deals show that the leading Arab Gulf states have rapidly become the biggest customers for Turkish drones in just a few years.

During the decade preceding these enormous deals, the Saudis and Emiratis mainly bought Chinese drones, notably the Wing Loong II, which saw combat in Yemen and Libya. But Chinese-made drones have lost their appeal amid the TB2’s dramatic and rapid ascendance.

Current Tih-backed government in Libya used TB2 drones to destroy Russian-built Pantsir-S1 air-defense systems that the UAE had sent to a militia it was supporting in that country’s civil war. Those drones did much more to shape the outcome of that conflict than the Wing Loongs also sent by the UAE.

Abu Dhabi later planned to acquire 18 advanced US-made MQ-9B Reaper drones as part of a $19 billion deal reached in January 2021, which included the F-35 stealth jet. It appears that deal has fizzled, however, with the UAE instead turning to Turkey for drones. The deal slowed as the US expressed concerns over Abu Dhabi’s relations with China. The UAE then suspended talks altogether and ordered 80 Dassault Rafales from France in December 2021.

Ali Bakir, an expert on Turkey at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldon Center, noted that purchasing drones “entails more than just acquiring the system.”

The Saudi deal will include “accompanying elements such as ammunition, systems, training, maintenance, command and control units, among others,” Bakir said. “These additional components will undoubtedly contribute to the initial costs, and if technology transfer is part of the agreement, the contract could very well exceed $2 billion minimum.”

Bakir told Insider that Turkish drones have gained “global recognition” due to their “affordability, efficiency, and lethal capabilities” and documented successes over modern battlefields.

“Furthermore, the Turkish TB2 has found its way to numerous countries across different continents and regions, including NATO and European Union members, as they come with fewer export restrictions,” Bakir said.

Suleyman Ozeren, a professorial lecturer at the American University and senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, said the Turkey-Saudi agreement represents more than merely purchasing drones or technology transfer.

It’s also “a signifying moment that shows Erdogan’s eagerness to make amends with Mohammed bin Salman,” Ozeren told Insider, referring to the Saudi crown prince. “Erdogan sees Saudi Arabia as a critical actor, a remedy for Turkey’s deep economic crisis, and a shortcut for his return to normalcy with the regional actors.”

Ozeren noted Turkey’s drones have proven “more reliable” than their Chinese counterparts, which, coupled with the fact they are cheaper than Western-made models, likely motivated these mammoth orders.

“Turkey’s ‘no-question-asked,’ ‘no-strings-attached’ policy also plays a role in countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar relying on Turkey-made drone technologies,” Ozeren said.

Ozeren said technology transfer and joint production will be “added value” for Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its defense capabilities, although it will still be incomparable to Riyadh’s longstanding dependency on the US for military hardware.

“Moreover, Saudi Arabia could use such capabilities to balance Iran’s drone technology in the long run,” Ozeren said.

Bakir, who is also a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said that these lucrative drone sales are of “utmost importance” for sustaining the “current upward trajectory” of Turkey’s indigenous defense industry.

In addition to expanding market reach and providing “crucial support” to Turkey’s economy, the contracts strengthen international partnerships, “creating a web of interests in defense, security, economic, and political realms,” Bakir said.

Ozeren said the Saudi deal could help Baykar “monopolize” drone technology in Turkey but noted that crucial details about the agreement remain unknown.

“Are there any binding provisions in the deal that might limit Baykar’s ability to make certain deals with certain countries?” Ozeren said, adding that there could also be conditions “independent of drone technology,” such as requirements that Turkey improve its relations with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

“No matter what the answers to these questions will be, the deal made the headlines in Turkey and abroad,” Ozeren said. “However, we should wait and see how it will unfold.”

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.